The Law of Expectation
by Xander The Food Dude
It took me a while
to decide what I wanted to write on this month, but it hit me like a
bolt of lightning this morning. Online I saw the headline “Fuel
will probably hit $10/gal soon”. At first I thought the required
thought… OH GEEZ ! Then it hit me in another way, I got more than a
little ticked off. I have a friend who is a stock broker. Not too
long ago I asked him why at times they announce gas going up and it
goes up in price for us overnight (if not hourly) and in other times
it take a week for it to slowly edge up ?
At the time he conveyed that it
really has nothing to do with many things like: Supply and demand
are fine, availability is fine, we have plenty of sources for it, no
one is threatening to destroy oil, the middle eastern oil still
costs them the same amount per barrel (which for your information is
about $3 a barrel cost to the Saudi’s). He said it is not the cause
of the oil companies. So pretty much I asked is it the fault of the
government, to which he replied the government has no role in
pricing of fuel. Ok, I’m thinking that pretty much rules out anyone
I wanted to blame. So who the heck is to blame, man. He told me of
the stock exchange in Chicago, in which stock speculators are, and
have been driving the cost of fuel up artificially for the last
couple of years. He said they have been pushing it and will
continue to push it as long as they can. Let’s go back to our
supply chain. Yes, whoever is providing oil is making BILLIONS more
than usual. YES, Oil companies are making BILLIONS more than
usual. And, unfortunately those BILLIONS come from us, so we’re
spending BILLIONS more than usual.
The speculation of future values are
driven heavily if not completely on two factors fear of shortage, or
fear of surplus. I know you’re thinking “fear of surplus” ?
Surplus is good for consumers, bad for suppliers. Let’s use this
explanation, the more available a commodity, or the larger the
supply, the less the drive to acquire it, so you can’t get as high a
price for it. The more limited the supply the greater the desire to
have it, so the more money you can get for it. Think of past trendy
things, cabbage patch kids, tickle me Elmo, PSP, PSP2, etc etc whose
limited availability opened up markets for leaches to buy at a
reasonable cost and resell on Ebay to the tune of economic rape of
consumers.
This brings us to speculators who are
making so much money who would want to stop. Oil producing
companies and gas companies, while not responsible, are not
complaining because they make so much more money, and they can
honestly say, It’s not us…. It’s them !!
So who gives the speculators such
power…. Easily put… our fear. Now my thought is that there are
hundreds if not thousands of reporters across the world whose
primary form of income comes from taking the role of “Chicken
Little” screaming to the world that the sky is falling because all
they do is report how gas will cost more and more soon. In the
average consumer we take this as being some level of fact so we
accept it as truth and create the law of expectation. As a brief
definition of the law, it basically says this… IF you EXPECT bad
things to happen, BAD things will happen, IF however you EXPECT,
good things to happen, good things will happen. In making their
contrived guesses about the future cost of fuel, these ignorant
“guardians of truth” become unwitting and mindless zombies who
stupidly play a role in creating the news they are supposed to be
reporting. In other word when it hits $10 a gallon, tell me then,
until then why don’t you quit getting on your evil empire horse and
send out a real story.
I think if we had a hundred or so
reporters that sent out this story on Monday “Gas should be $1.50 a
gallon soon”, it may not make it to $1.50 by Friday the chances are
that the price would start dropping, because we expect it. While
you say this sounds ridiculous, that is the only reason the price
rises now with the report that someone in Iran has an upset stomach
and they may not be able to report to work at an oil plant even
though they play no role in oil production.
We see oil providers as being evil for
not increasing supply, but in actuality they are rather smart. They
earn all the extra money now, without responsibility. They know as
well as some others that this oil bubble (like the housing bubble)
is finally going to burst causing the cost to plummet. If the
Saudis increase the amount in supply it would drive down the cost of
oil in a huge way and they wouldn’t make as much money. I’m not
saying oil is going to be $1.50 a gallon again, maybe though, but it
will be priced more reasonably then now. So take this as a lesson
for every facet of your lives. The power of expectation is a real
thing that can alter and change our lives in many ways. Expect the
good ….. get the good, expect the bad …. Well you then get high fuel
costs.
Next time you’re ready to admit defeat,
or give up keep in mind that your mind can do more to help you
achieve then you know. In that same why, improperly used it can do
more to help you fail than you know.
So, until next time
keep the power of expectation in mind…. Oh and by the way, “Gas
should be $1 a gallon soon….. spread the word…. Spread the
expectation, let’s see what happens…
J
Xander